Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1536 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

AA 1536 · DFW → FLL

departs 11:47 AM CT · arrives 3:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1536 · DFW → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?