Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1770 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

AA 1770 · DFW → DCA

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1770 · DFW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?