Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3009 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

AA 3009 · FLL → DCA

departs 11:23 AM ET · arrives 1:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from FLL are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3009 · FLL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?