Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Today
DL 1885 · JFK → DTW
departs 12:52 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 11/10 10%
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.