Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1885 · JFK → DTW
departs 12:53 PM ET · arrives 2:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 11/10 10%
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±11 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at JFK that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DTW that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.20 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.