Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3229
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 3229 · MSO → SEA
departs 1:59 PM MT · arrives 2:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/8 23%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MSO is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
↓
1pm departures from MSO are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSO (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.