Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 3865 · FSD → MSP
departs 1:02 PM CT · arrives 2:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 11/7 16%
Sun 11/8 8%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 29%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.