Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 177 · TPA → MIA
departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
MIA (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.