Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1823 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9 Tomorrow

WN 1823 · DEN → SMF

departs 9:24 PM MT · arrives 11:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1823 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?