Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 1823 · DEN → SMF
departs 8:19 PM MT · arrives 9:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Mon 11/9 24%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.