Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3246 · AUS → MIA
departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 3:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sun 11/8 33%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 25%
Wed 11/11 21%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.