Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3483
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3483 · CMH → DCA
departs 12:51 PM ET · arrives 2:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 26%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 34%
Wed 11/11 39%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.