Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3516 · MDW → DCA
departs 9:00 PM CT · arrives 12:01 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 31%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.