Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4075 · DCA → PVD
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 1:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/7 15%
Sun 11/8 13%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.