Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 4470 · HOU → SAT
departs 10:20 PM CT · arrives 11:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 767 ft Visibility 5.33333 mi Precip 0.07 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.