Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4470 · HOU → SAT
departs 8:33 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Mon 11/9 37%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at HOU that day
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.