Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4892
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4892 · TPA → IND
departs 9:51 PM ET · arrives 12:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 28%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 25%
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.