Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4997 · AUS → DCA
departs 11:52 AM CT · arrives 4:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 31%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11 29%
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DCA that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.