Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 957
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 957 · BWI → AUS
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 58%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 40%
Fri 11/13 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.