9E 4913 · MSP → DSM

departs 6:02 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4913 · MSP → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?