AA 1253 · SFO → ORD

took off 10:45 AM PT · expected to land 4:20 PM CT (scheduled 10:33 AM PT → 4:48 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1253 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?