AA 1253 · SFO → ORD

departs 10:33 AM PT · arrives 4:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1253 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?