Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2451 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AA 2451 · MIA → SJO

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 3:01 PM CST

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJO?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2451 · MIA → SJO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJO?