Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2569 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

AA 2569 · CLT → SFO

departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2569 · CLT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?