Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 354 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow

AA 354 · PTY → MIA

departs 3:08 PM EST · arrives 6:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 354 · PTY → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?