AA 556 · LAX → MIA

departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 7:25 PM ET

Your aircraft is N463AA (A21N), coming in as AA 554 from MIA: landed 5:43 PM PT.

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 556 · LAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?