AA 822 · SDQ → PHL

departs 2:50 PM AST · arrives 5:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SDQ that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

SDQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 822 · SDQ → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?