Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Today
DL 1996 · JFK → MCO
departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12 64%
Fri 11/13 40%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.