Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 1996 · JFK → MCO
departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 5:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 40%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JFK that day
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.43 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.