DL 2003 · JFK → MIA

took off 1:56 PM ET · expected to land 4:24 PM ET (scheduled 1:27 PM ET → 4:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2003 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?