Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 3851 · MSP → RAP
departs 3:14 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 11/9 9%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 23%
Fri 11/13 25%
Sat 11/14 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RAP?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RAP (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.