Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Today
OO 4614 · MSP → DTW
departs 8:21 PM CT · arrives 11:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.