Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
OO 4636 · ORD → SBN
departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.