Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 4636 · ORD → SBN
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.