Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
OO 4781 · DCA → ORD
departs 7:02 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 51%
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13 42%
Sat 11/14 33%
Sun 11/15 56%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.