Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 4195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 4195 · MIA → MIA

departs 10:07 AM ET · arrives 11:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4195 · MIA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?