Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8187 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Yesterday

UA 8187 · SFO → DCA

departs 2:28 PM PT · arrives 10:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DCA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8187 · SFO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?