WN 3148 · DEN → SMF

departs 2:21 PM MT · arrives 3:56 PM PT

Your aircraft is N9009U (B38M), coming in as WN 2311 from MSP: in the air, landing about 1:10 PM MT, 63 min before departure.

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3148 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?