Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3148
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3148 · DEN → SMF
departs 1:47 PM MT · arrives 3:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 31%
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.