Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4835 · MCO → OKC
departs 9:46 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.