tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4711 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 4711 · ORD → DSM

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 6:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 142h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in November, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
33% chance · ±13 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to DSM?

  1. On time or early
    59%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    9%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    9%
  6. Cancelled
    12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.