AA 1697 · MSP → DFW

took off 3:13 PM CT · expected to land 5:06 PM CT (scheduled 2:40 PM CT → 5:20 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1697 · MSP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?