Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1837 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow

AA 1837 · DCA → BTV

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 3:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1837 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?