Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2231 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AA 2231 · MIA → CLE

departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2231 · MIA → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?