Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2305 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow

AA 2305 · ORD → DCA

departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 4:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2305 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?