AA 3162 · JFK → ORD

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Your aircraft is N378SC (B38M), coming in as AA 1289 from BDA: landed 1:29 PM ET.

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3162 · JFK → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?