Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Thursday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3162 SCHEDULED

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

AA 3162 · JFK → ORD

departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±11 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

ORD (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3162 · JFK → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?