Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AA 3218 · MIA → MCO

departs 9:40 AM ET · arrives 10:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3218 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?