Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow

AA 454 · AUS → PHL

departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 5:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 454 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?