Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 70 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AS 70 · JNU → SIT

departs 10:18 PM AKST · arrives 10:59 PM AKST

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↓ 10pm departures from JNU are usually not late

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

SIT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 70 · JNU → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?